Predictive Project Management — Deal with Facts, not Hopes
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ThinknSolv
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Database Overview
📊 A separate Excel audit workbook (pluto_OUT.xlsx, live formulas — see link top-right) exists alongside this dashboard. The two are fully independent: this page never reads the workbook, and the workbook is never regenerated from this page. Updating one does not update the other — regenerate the workbook manually (python3 build_pluto_excel.py) if you want it to reflect a change made here.
Total Projects
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Raw history
After Cleaning
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Outliers removed
1st in Family avg
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months
Innovative avg
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months

1st in Family

Innovative

Follower

Duration Range by Complexity

Project History & Outlier Cleaning

Cleaning Method: IQR × k

Projects outside Q1−k×IQR / Q3+k×IQR are excluded. Negative and missing values also removed.

1.0 (aggressive)1.5 (standard)3.0 (loose)5.0 (minimal)
Q1 (25th pct)-
Q3 (75th pct)-
IQR-
Upper limit (Q3 + k×IQR)-
Lower limit (Q1 − k×IQR)-
Outliers removed-
Clean records-

Scatter: All Projects

All Projects

#ComplexityDuration (mo)Status
Statistical Distributions & Model Comparison

Histogram (cleaned data)

Cumulative Distribution — CDF

Model Fit Comparison — CDF MSE (lower = better) — 6 models vs Excel reference

Validation Statistics

Monte Carlo Simulation (n = 1,000 trials)

1st in Family — Distribution

Innovative — Distribution

Follower — Distribution

Optimal Start Date — Dashboard
Recommended SoD
1Q26
Start of Design
Forecast SoP
1Q29
Start of Production
Sales Target SoP
4Q28
Gap: +1 Q
Success Probability
29%
Target: 80%

SoD Drivers — 110% Loading Constraint

Project KPI Status

ComplexityInnovative
Duration target2.5 yr DB avg: 3.1 yr
Effort target6 mxy DB avg: 7.2 mxy
Revisions target3 DB avg: 3.1
Cost target2500 k€ DB avg: 2469
Overall success29% (target 80%)

Resource Loading Overview (3Q25–2Q28)

Projects Pipeline Timeline

Project KPIs & Success Probability

New Project Inputs

KPI Probabilities vs Database

Statistical Model — Database Reference (from Excel)

Metric1st in FamilyInnovativeFollower
Technical Platform Maturity

Platform Stage

Platform Stage Roadmap

Each stage ~1 quarter. Project needs platform at minimum stage before SoD.
Past Current Needed Future

Stage Table

StageNameStatus vs CurrentStatus vs Needed
Resource Loading & Pipeline

R&D Headcount Plan (Base)

YearBase HCChange
20256→7—
20268→9+2–3
20279→11+1–2
202812+1
🔒 Hard cap: utilization ≤ 110% — extra hires triggered automatically.

110% Constraint Analysis

Quarterly Resource Loading Red = above 110%

Capacity Utilization (%) — 110% Hard Cap

Quarter-by-Quarter Detail

QuarterBase HCTotal LoadUtilizationExtra HireFinal HC

Projects Pipeline

ProjectStatusComplexityStartEndTarget %Effort (mxy)
Start Date Recommendation
Computing...

🔧 Tech Platform

Required stageTest Vehicle (4)
Current stageSamples (10)
Constraint✓ Already met
Earliest SoD from tech4Q24

👥 Resource Pipeline

Next free slot1Q26
Active projects blockingA, B, C
Constraint⚠ Binding
Earliest SoD from pipeline1Q26

🎯 KPI Feasibility

Duration probability29% (need 80%)
Effort probability42%
Recommended actionExtend targets
Duration for 80%~3.9 years

Scenario Comparison — SoD vs SoP gap

What-If: Change SoD

Key Risks & Mitigations

SoP 1Q late vs salesNegotiate or accelerate
Low KPI success (29%)Revise duration to 3.9 yr
Pipeline overload 1Q27Hire plan critical
Effort 12.5 vs 7.2 DB avg74% above avg
Tech platform: Samples✓ No constraint

Summary Recommendation

ParameterTargetRecommendedStatus
Glossary